Women’s March Madness Final Four Predictions: UConn, South Carolina, UCLA, Texas

The 2026 Women’s Final Four is finally here, and—no huge surprise—all four No. 1 seeds have landed in Phoenix. That means two much-hyped matchups are set for Friday night, with the winners heading to Sunday’s title game.

First up, UConn faces South Carolina in a rematch of last year’s championship. After that, UCLA takes on Texas. Our experts weighed in on who might advance, and their takes are a mix of analysis, hunches, and maybe a little wishful thinking.

UConn vs. South Carolina: A Rematch of Last Year’s Championship

Fans have been buzzing about this UConn-South Carolina rematch, set for Friday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Last year, UConn ran away with it, winning by 23 points.

This time, though, South Carolina looks tougher, putting up eight more points per game than they did last season. The energy is different—maybe this one actually goes down to the wire?

Why UConn is Favored

Even with South Carolina’s improvements, most experts are still leaning UConn. Here’s what’s swaying them:

• Perimeter Shooting and Versatility: Sarah Strong, Blanca Quiñonez, and Jana El Alfy give UConn a serious offensive spark.
• Defensive Prowess: UConn’s defense has been suffocating, holding teams to 34.7% shooting and forcing 21 turnovers per game. That’s just wild.
• Recent Performance: Even on off nights, UConn keeps finding ways to dominate—just look at those wins over North Carolina and Notre Dame.

Ayala, Gibbs, Gonzalez, and Maloney all keep coming back to UConn’s defense. They also point to Blanca Quiñonez, who’s really stepped up when it matters.

South Carolina’s Offensive Surge

But let’s not count out South Carolina. The Gamecocks have turned up the heat offensively this year.

Key Factors for South Carolina

Here’s what could swing things their way:

• Balanced Scoring: Six players are averaging double figures, and three of them put up at least 14 points per game. That’s some depth.
• Resilience: They bounced back from a rough loss to Texas in the SEC championship, showing they can regroup when it counts.
• Intensity: But they’ll need to bring the energy early—something they struggled with against TCU in the Elite Eight.

Gibbs and Gonzalez admit South Carolina’s got firepower, but they’re not sure it’s enough to crack UConn’s defense.

UCLA vs. Texas: A Battle of Titans

The second game Friday, at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, has UCLA facing Texas. This one’s a bit of a toss-up—both teams have almost identical stats.

Picking a favorite? Not easy. The numbers just don’t give much away.

Why Texas Could Prevail

Texas has looked sharp all tournament, and here’s why they might have the edge:

• Offensive and Defensive Balance: This squad might be the best two-way team Vic Schaefer’s ever had.
• Key Players: Madison Booker, Rori Harmon, and Jordan Lee have been clutch all season.
• Previous Encounter: Texas already beat UCLA 76-65 earlier this year. Maybe history repeats?

Gibbs and Gonzalez, who originally picked UCLA, are now leaning Texas after seeing how dominant the Longhorns looked in regionals. Hard to argue with recent form.

UCLA’s Quest for Redemption

Still, UCLA isn’t just rolling over. They want payback for that earlier loss to Texas.

Factors Favoring UCLA

Here’s what could put them over the top:

• Perimeter Shooting and Rebounding: UCLA’s length and shooting might cause Texas some headaches.
• Star Players: Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice, and a couple of future pros give them a real shot.
• Motivation: Avenging their only loss? That’s some serious fuel.

Ayala and Maloney think if UCLA can handle Texas’ pressure and protect the ball, they’ve got a real chance to make the title game. Guess we’ll see who keeps their cool when it counts.

Final Thoughts

The 2026 Women’s Final Four looks like it’s shaping up to be a wild ride. UConn and South Carolina are back at it, ready to add another chapter to their rivalry.

UCLA and Texas? That matchup could go either way, honestly. Fans should buckle up—March Madness never fails to surprise.

If you want a deeper dive or just love predictions, check out the full article on CBS Sports.