Vanderbilt’s College Football Playoff Hopes: Analyzing Their Chances

ByCoach

Vanderbilt University’s football team has been making waves this season. Their recent win over LSU just pushed them to No. 10 in the AP poll.

Even so, their College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes are still pretty shaky, at least according to Austin Mock’s Playoff projections model. This post takes a closer look at what’s really driving Vanderbilt’s playoff chances, why there’s still a lot of doubt, and what it all means for the rest of the teams scrambling for a spot.

Vanderbilt’s Performance and Playoff Chances

Even though Vanderbilt climbed the rankings, people are still questioning their playoff prospects. Austin Mock’s model only gives them an 8 percent shot at making the CFP.

The model’s not convinced for a few reasons. Their offense totally sputtered against Alabama, and their defense has looked shaky more than once this season.

Key Factors Affecting Vanderbilt’s Playoff Odds

The model points to a few big issues:

  • Poor Performance Against Alabama: Vanderbilt’s offense managed just -0.07 expected points added (EPA) per play, with a 39 percent success rate. Those are numbers you’d expect from a team near the bottom.
  • Defensive Inconsistencies: Their defense has been questionable, even when facing weaker teams.
  • Upcoming Challenging Schedule: They’ve got to host Missouri, then hit the road to play Texas and Tennessee. If they only win one of those three, they’ll probably finish 9-3, which won’t cut it for the CFP.

Impact of Upcoming Games on Vanderbilt’s Playoff Hopes

If Vanderbilt can split the games against Missouri and Texas, and snag wins over Auburn and Kentucky, they might show up to their season finale against Tennessee with playoff hopes still alive. But honestly, 9-3 probably isn’t enough unless the rest of the country melts down.

The Importance of the Missouri Game

The Missouri game could swing everything:

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  • If Missouri beats Vanderbilt: Missouri CFP odds jump to 31 percent, and Vanderbilt’s drop to 4 percent.
  • If Vanderbilt wins: Vanderbilt CFP odds climb to 23 percent, while Missouri’s fall to 5 percent.

Broader Implications for the College Football Playoff Race

The SEC’s still wide open. Half the conference has one loss or less, which just adds to the chaos and keeps the playoff race interesting.

Other Teams in the Playoff Hunt

There’s a crowd of other teams in the hunt too:

  • Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma: If Ole Miss wins, their CFP odds rocket to 84 percent, while Oklahoma’s fall to 13 percent. Flip it, and Oklahoma’s odds hit 50 percent, while Ole Miss’s drop to 41 percent.
  • South Florida vs. Memphis: A South Florida win bumps their CFP odds to 35 percent, and Memphis’s drop below 1 percent. If Memphis takes it, their odds go up to 10 percent, and South Florida’s slide to 14 percent.

The Role of Quality Wins and Losses

Quality wins matter a ton in the Playoff era. Quality losses? Not so much.

Vanderbilt and Missouri both need big wins to boost their resumes. Vanderbilt’s only got one ranked win this season, so they’ve got to make the most of every shot left if they want to stay in the playoff conversation.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s journey to the College Football Playoff is full of hurdles. Upcoming games against Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee could make or break their season.

The odds don’t look great right now. Still, a strong finish might just put them back in the playoff conversation.

Fans and analysts are watching every move as the Commodores head into the last stretch. It’s tough to predict what’ll happen, but that’s what makes it interesting, isn’t it?

For more detailed insights, you can read the full article on Vanderbilt’s playoff chances here.

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