Predicting Underdog College Football Playoff Contenders: Key Factors Explained

The AP’s preseason poll for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff contenders is out. As usual, it highlights powerhouses like Texas, Penn State, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame.

But let’s be real—history says the field won’t stick to just these hyped-up names. Some unranked underdog teams have a real shot to crash the playoff party.

If you dig into historical data and look at a few key factors, you can spot these dark-horse candidates. They just might surprise everyone by season’s end.

Understanding the Predictive Factors

If you want to predict which unranked teams could make a leap, you’ll need to look at several metrics. These include the Simple Rating System (SRS), regression to the mean, yards per point (YPP), turnover margins, and coaching tenures.

Each factor gives a different angle on a team’s potential. Sometimes, it’s not about the obvious stats.

Simple Rating System (SRS)

The Simple Rating System (SRS) is a helpful tool for sizing up teams. It measures performance compared to the average, considering offense and defense.

History shows that teams with a +5.0 SRS from last season have a better shot at breaking into the top 12 of the final pre-bowl poll. BYU and Louisville, with their strong SRS scores last year, seem well-positioned to surprise.

Regression to the Mean

Regression to the mean is another big one. Teams that had an unusually good or bad season usually drift back to their normal level.

So, Air Force, Oklahoma State, and Florida State—who underperformed last year—could bounce back this season.

The Role of Yards Per Point (YPP)

Yards per point (YPP) is kind of an underrated stat. It measures how well a team turns yardage into points on offense and makes opponents work for points on defense.

Teams with a lower YPP differential usually do better. Historically, those with a negative YPP differential can make a big leap. Army and Iowa stand out for their efficiency here.

Pythagorean Luck

Pythagorean luck compares a team’s actual record to what you’d expect based on points scored and allowed. Teams that got unlucky in close games—like UCF and Auburn—could see better results this year.

Turnover Margins

Turnover margins usually regress, too. Teams with a rough turnover differential last year are likely to improve.

Florida State, with a minus-16 turnover margin, looks primed for a turnaround. Auburn, UCF, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and West Virginia also have some potential to improve here.

Impact of Coaching Tenure

Coaching tenure matters more than people realize. Teams with coaches in their third or fourth year often do better—maybe because the coach has had time to install systems, recruit, and build culture.

USC, Louisville, Auburn, Virginia Tech, and Nebraska all have coaches in that sweet spot. They could surprise this season.

Scheduling Factors

Schedules can really change things. Teams moving from a harder to an easier schedule often outperform expectations.

Virginia Tech, USC, FSU, Kansas, and Washington all have easier projected schedules this year, making them interesting candidates to break into the top 12.

Combining the Predictive Factors

When you put all these predictive factors together, you get a solid list of possible dark-horse teams. USC looks most likely to rise from outside the top 25 to real playoff contention, followed by Louisville, Auburn, Virginia Tech, and a handful of Big Ten and Big 12 schools.