Notre Dame’s Playoff Chances: The Most Controversial Team of 2025

Notre Dame’s 2025 college football season has sparked a lot of debate among fans and analysts. Even after two early losses, the Fighting Irish are still in the Playoff conversation because of their tough schedule and a 54 percent chance to make the field, according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock.

Notre Dame began the season with two narrow losses to Miami and Texas A&M, both ranked in the top six. Those defeats came by just 4 points combined, which says a lot about how close those games really were.

Their schedule ranks No. 2 nationally, and that’s a big boost for their Playoff hopes. They bounced back with a 56-13 win over Arkansas, showing they can dominate when things click.

Strength of Schedule

Notre Dame’s schedule is brutal—second hardest in the country, right behind Florida’s. They’ve already faced teams like Miami and Texas A&M.

This kind of schedule cuts both ways. It makes the path tougher, sure, but if they keep winning, it’s a huge plus on their resume.

Remaining Schedule and Win Probabilities

The rest of Notre Dame’s schedule looks easier, ranked 71st nationally. They’re expected to be favored in all eight remaining games, including matchups with Boise State, USC, NC State, Navy, and Syracuse.

In fact, five of those games have a win probability north of 90 percent for the Irish. That’s a nice cushion, but nothing’s guaranteed in college football.

Key Matchups

• Boise State: A big one for both teams. If Notre Dame wins, their CFP odds jump to 56 percent.
• USC: Another huge home game that could really help their Playoff case.
• NC State, Navy, and Syracuse: All at home, and Notre Dame’s expected to win each one.
• Boston College, Stanford, and Pitt: These are the remaining away games. They shouldn’t be overlooked, but the Irish are favored in all three.

Impact of Brand Bias and Committee Decisions

Notre Dame’s independent status means they don’t play a conference championship game. That puts them at the mercy of the CFP committee.

Brand bias might creep in. Notre Dame’s storied history and last year’s national championship game appearance could sway the committee’s perception, for better or worse.

Strength of Schedule Metrics

The committee’s new strength of schedule metrics will matter a lot. Notre Dame won’t have many top-25 wins, but they’ll rack up victories over top-50 teams.

If they keep winning convincingly, that could be enough to tip the scales in their favor.

Comparative Analysis with Other Teams

Other teams are fighting for Playoff spots too. Indiana has a 41 percent chance, thanks to a 5-0 start and wins over Illinois and Iowa.

Their nonconference schedule is weaker, though, so a bad loss could really hurt them.

Georgia also sits at 54 percent, just like Notre Dame. They have tough games coming up against Ole Miss, Texas, and Georgia Tech.

A home loss to Alabama has put them on the bubble, so every game matters now.

Florida State and Vanderbilt

Florida State’s upset loss to Virginia dropped their Playoff odds to 15 percent. They’re not out of it, but they’ll need a top-five win to get back in the ACC title race.

Vanderbilt’s chances are slim at 4 percent, but a win over Alabama would change the conversation fast.

Conclusion

Notre Dame’s path to the College Football Playoff isn’t exactly smooth. Plenty of challenges and question marks still hang over their season.

They’ve got a tough schedule, but that’s also what keeps them in the conversation. If they can avoid more losses, they’ll stay in the hunt—though honestly, it’s up to the CFP committee in the end.

People will keep debating whether Notre Dame can make it. But you can’t deny the Fighting Irish could shake things up this season.

Want to dig deeper? Check out the full analysis on the NY Times Athletic.