Notre Dame’s Path to College Football Playoff Bracket Explained

ByCoach

Notre Dame’s journey to the College Football Playoff (CFP) keeps drawing in fans and analysts. The Irish landed at No. 10 in the CFP selection committee’s first Top 25 rankings, which matches where they started last year.

With four games left in the regular season, Notre Dame looks well-positioned to grab a CFP spot—if they can keep winning. Let’s get into the main factors shaping Notre Dame’s playoff hopes and what could trip them up.

Notre Dame’s Current Standing and Upcoming Challenges

Right now, Notre Dame stands as the highest-ranked two-loss team in the CFP’s first rankings. They’re even ahead of several one-loss teams from Power 4 conferences.

The Irish have a pretty friendly schedule coming up. In three games, oddsmakers see them as 20-point favorites. The toughest test? A November 15 trip to No. 24 Pittsburgh, which feels like it could go either way.

Key Games and Potential Outcomes

Here are the matchups that really matter for Notre Dame:

  • Nov. 15 at No. 24 Pittsburgh: This one’s expected to be tight. Notre Dame is favored by a touchdown, but it’s not a sure thing.
  • Remaining Games: The Irish are heavy favorites—by about 20 points—in their other three games.

Head coach Marcus Freeman isn’t getting caught up in rankings. He tells his team to ignore the CFP hype and just focus on the next opponent. Honestly, that’s probably the smartest way to go.

Comparative Analysis with Other Teams

Notre Dame’s ranking puts them in a pretty good spot compared to other top teams. The Athletic’s projection model says Notre Dame would be a 9.5-point favorite over No. 7 BYU if they played in Provo.

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Some other big matchups, like No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 8 Texas Tech, are expected to be much closer. That gives the Irish a bit of an edge in the eyes of the computers.

Potential Quarterfinal Matchups

If Notre Dame gets past BYU, they’d probably face No. 2 Indiana in the quarterfinals. That’s not a bad draw, honestly.

The top four—No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas A&M, and No. 4 Alabama—are tougher outs. But Notre Dame might be able to dodge those powerhouses until the semifinals.

Scenarios for Securing a CFP Spot

The Athletic’s model gives Notre Dame an 81% shot at making the CFP. Still, plenty of things could shake up their final spot:

  • SEC Matchups: Teams like No. 11 Texas and No. 13 Oklahoma, who are right behind Notre Dame, have some rough games coming up that could drop them down.
  • Conference Championships: The results from conference title games could shuffle the rankings, too.

Potential Movements in Rankings

To host a CFP game, Notre Dame needs to climb to No. 8. For that to happen, they’ll need a little help—some teams ahead of them need to lose.

Here are a few key matchups worth keeping an eye on:

  • Georgia: Facing Mississippi State, No. 11 Texas, Charlotte, and No. 17 Georgia Tech.
  • Ole Miss: Up against Citadel, Florida, and Mississippi State.
  • BYU: Playing No. 8 Texas Tech, TCU, Cincinnati, and UCF.
  • Texas Tech: Meeting No. 7 BYU, UCF, and West Virginia.
  • Oregon: Challenging No. 20 Iowa, Minnesota, No. 19 USC, and No. 23 Washington.

The Impact of Head-to-Head Matchups

The CFP selection committee really cares about head-to-head games. Notre Dame’s loss to Miami in the opener stands out, but their play since then has kept them ahead of Miami in the rankings.

Committee’s Perspective

Committee chair Mack Rhoades pointed out that Notre Dame’s defense has stepped up, and freshman quarterback CJ Carr has looked sharp. Even though Miami has the same record, their inconsistency has kept them behind Notre Dame in the committee’s eyes.

Conclusion

Notre Dame’s path to the CFP looks loaded with both promise and uncertainty. The Irish have a pretty favorable schedule, but a few key matchups still loom.

They’ve got a real shot at the playoffs, though nothing’s guaranteed. Other teams’ results and the twists of conference championships could shake things up at any moment.

If you’re curious about deeper playoff odds and who Notre Dame might face, check out The New York Times article.

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