College Football Week 3 Predictions: Darian Mensah’s Performance Against Former Team

In college football betting, luck sometimes matters just as much as skill. Last week’s best bets from the College Football Projection Model showed that perfectly—both Louisville and Syracuse barely covered.

This week, let’s dig into the top picks for Week 3. We’ll look at the numbers and strategies that shape each recommendation.

Whether you’re a longtime bettor or just starting out, understanding the details of these bets can really help in the long run.

Week 2 Recap: The Role of Luck

Last week was a wild ride. Louisville and Syracuse covered the spread by the skin of their teeth, which was a relief for anyone who bet at the right number.

The record for the week ended up at 3-2, for a small profit of 0.80 units. The season sits at 5-4, with a 6.0% ROI so far.

Importance of Timing in Betting

Timing your bets matters—a lot. If you didn’t grab the number when it was published, you could’ve pushed or even lost.

Shopping around for the best price and betting at the right moment can make all the difference.

Week 3 Picks: Analyzing the Numbers

Heading into Week 3, the College Football Projection Model has churned out five bets. There were a few others that just missed the cut by half a point.

Here’s a look at the top picks and the thinking behind each one.

Colorado vs. Houston

The model says Colorado is a must-buy at +4.5. Even though Houston’s improving and Colorado seems to be slipping, the numbers show this game is closer to a toss-up.

This feels like a good spot to buy low on Colorado and sell high on Houston.

• Worst price to bet: Colorado +4 (-110)

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

Both teams play fast and score plenty. But Arkansas hasn’t faced a tough opponent yet, and Ole Miss put up just 53 points in their game against Kentucky.

The model likes the under here, hinting that consistent offense might not show up.

• Worst price to bet: Under 61 (-110)

Auburn vs. South Alabama

South Alabama plays fast, but Auburn’s defense is tough. The model gives Auburn a clear edge against the spread.

With Auburn coming off back-to-back ranked road games, they might just focus on staying healthy instead of running up the score. Betting the under seems like the move.

• Worst price to bet: Under 54.5 (-110)

Western Michigan vs. North Texas

Western Michigan will probably pick up the pace since they’ll be trailing, unlike their last matchup. The model projects total points in the mid-50s.

The over looks pretty appealing here.

• Worst price to bet: Over 51 (-110)

Duke vs. Tulane

BetMGM has the best price for this one, and the model suggests the under. Duke’s defense should have a real talent edge, which could slow down Tulane’s offense.

The whole “Darian Mensah facing his old team” angle doesn’t seem like a big deal here.