College Football Week 13: Bowl Projections for FBS Newcomers and UNC

The college football season is almost at its peak. With just two weeks left before the regular season wraps up, the buzz is everywhere.

This year’s bowl projections bring a whole new level of intrigue. We’re seeing unexpected matchups, plenty of surprises, and a qualification process that’s as complicated as ever.

Let’s take a look at the latest bowl projections, what it all means for teams on the edge, and how the 12-team College Football Playoff is shaping things. For the full breakdown, check out the original article.

North Carolina’s Bowl Eligibility: A Closer Look

North Carolina, led by first-year coach Bill Belichick, is fighting for a bowl spot. They’re sitting at 4-6 and need two more wins to lock in postseason eligibility.

But there’s a twist. If they can’t get to six wins, their academic progress rate (APR) could still get them in.

The Role of Academic Progress Rate (APR)

APR matters a ton for bowl eligibility, especially for teams that fall short on wins. North Carolina’s APR ranks near the top in the FBS, just behind Ohio State and Alabama—both already in the postseason.

If North Carolina finishes 5-7 and there aren’t enough six-win teams, their high APR gives them a real shot at a bowl invite.

Key Matchups and Projections

The bowl projections this year are honestly pretty wild. Here are a few games that stand out:

• Playoff Dec. 19, 2025: Ole Miss vs. Alabama
• Playoff Dec. 20, 2025: Texas Tech vs. North Texas
• Playoff Dec. 20, 2025: Oregon vs. Virginia
• Playoff Dec. 20, 2025: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma

High-Stakes Games

These playoff matchups will decide who moves on to the Cotton, Orange, Rose, and Sugar Bowls. The pressure is sky-high—everyone’s chasing a shot at the title.

The 12-Team College Football Playoff System

This is just the second year for the 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a setup that takes the top five conference champs and the next best seven teams.

The top four get first-round byes, which changes the game entirely.

First-Round Byes and Bowl Assignments

Teams that snag those byes end up playing in the Cotton, Orange, Rose, or Sugar Bowls on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1. If the Big Ten and SEC champs grab byes, they go to the Rose and Sugar Bowls, respectively.

That means some of the best showdowns of the year will happen on the biggest stages. Can’t really ask for more than that.

Implications for Conference Champions

The playoff format puts a huge spotlight on conference championships. Win your conference, and you’re in—plus, you’ve got a much better shot at a bye.

It’s a massive motivator for teams to give it everything they’ve got, right through the regular season and into those championship games.

Potential for Intriguing Matchups

With the way things stand, there’s a real chance we’ll see some old conference rivals face off in bowls like the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday, or Sun. Those kinds of matchups always bring extra drama.

Familiar foes meeting again, but this time with everything on the line? That’s the good stuff.

Other Noteworthy Bowl Games

Outside the playoffs and marquee bowls, there are still plenty of games worth watching. Here are a few that could get interesting:

• LA Bowl Dec. 13, 2025: Arizona vs. San Diego State
• Salute to Veterans Bowl Dec. 16, 2025: Arkansas State vs. Central Michigan
• Cure Bowl Dec. 17, 2025: James Madison vs. UConn
• Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 19, 2025: Florida State vs. USF

Emerging Teams and Newcomers

This season’s also shining a light on some new faces. Missouri State, sitting at 7-3 in its first FBS season, looks set for a bowl appearance.