Big 12 Seizes Opportunity to Redefine College Football Playoff Path
The 2025 college football season could be a turning point for the Big 12 Conference. With a fresh approach to its regular season and several teams off to hot starts, the Big 12 looks ready to shake up the College Football Playoff (CFP).
This article gets into the details of the Big 12’s strategy, the important matchups, and the college football landscape that might shape the conference’s playoff hopes.
The Big 12’s New Approach
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Back in 2024, the Big 12 launched a campaign called the race to the Big 12 Championship. Sure, it wasn’t the most original idea, but it brought plenty of drama.
Nine out of sixteen teams were still in the hunt for the conference title heading into the last weekend. That kind of parity made things exciting, but it also meant the Big 12 ended up with just one team in the expanded College Football Playoff.
This season, the Big 12 has tweaked its messaging. The preseason media poll is gone.
Arizona State’s wild jump from worst to first last year made everyone question the value of preseason rankings. Commissioner Brett Yormark keeps saying the Big 12 needs to earn respect by showing up on the field, not just on paper.
Key Teams and Players
Now that the 2025 season is underway, the Big 12 actually has a shot at sending more than one team to the CFP. Three teams have landed in the AP Top 25:
- No. 12 Iowa State: With quarterback Rocco Becht at the helm, Iowa State is 4-0. They have a neutral-site win over Kansas State and even took down in-state Big Ten rival Iowa.
- No. 16 Utah: Utah sits at 3-0, thanks to a revitalized offensive line and the arrival of dual-threat transfer quarterback Devon Dampier.
- No. 17 Texas Tech: Texas Tech is also 3-0. They leaned into the transfer portal this offseason, though they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents yet.
BYU, TCU, Arizona State, Baylor, and Kansas are lurking too. Each sits at 2-1 and they’re itching to prove they belong in the playoff conversation.
The Broader College Football Landscape
The Big 12’s playoff chances look better with some traditional powers stumbling early. Notre Dame is 0-2, and The Athletic’s projection model puts their playoff odds at just 20 percent.
Clemson’s in even rougher shape, with only a 12 percent chance after a 1-2 start.
Miami and Florida State both cracked the top 10 in the ACC. Their upcoming head-to-head is going to shake things up, at least for the loser.
Meanwhile, the SEC is super crowded—11 teams in the Top 25—but none of them look unbeatable so far. If they keep beating up on each other, it could knock some contenders out of the playoff race.
Critical Matchups and Scenarios
The Big 12’s best path to multiple playoff bids runs through a handful of crucial matchups:
- Texas Tech vs. Utah: This top-20 clash is huge. If Utah wins, their playoff odds jump to 46 percent. If Texas Tech pulls it off, they’re looking at 49 percent.
- Iowa State’s Schedule: Iowa State dodges Utah and Texas Tech, but they’ll have to get through BYU, Arizona State, and TCU back-to-back-to-back.
- Other Contenders: Baylor and TCU could still make some noise. It really depends on whether Sawyer Robertson and Josh Hoover, their respective quarterbacks, can step up.
If the Big 12 can get undefeated teams into the conference championship, that’s the dream scenario. Even so, a league with a couple of one-loss teams should have a strong case for the playoff, especially with Notre Dame struggling and the SEC looking like a logjam.
The Road Ahead
The 2025 Big 12 season has just started. Six teams are jumping into league play this weekend, and six more will follow next weekend.
There’s a lot of time between now and the conference title game on December 6. Anything can happen in these next few months.
The Big 12 has a real shot to change how people talk about the conference. Maybe this is the year they earn some respect on the field and grab more than one spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. Wouldn’t that shake things up?
If you want to dig deeper, you can check out the full article on the New York Times.