2025 Women’s March Madness: Complete NCAA Tournament Bracket and Odds

The 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament is upon us, and with it comes the excitement and drama of March Madness. This year’s projections offer a detailed look at each team’s chances of advancing through the tournament and ultimately cutting down the nets in Tampa on April 6.

Understanding the Projections

The projections for the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament are grounded in advanced statistical models that evaluate each team’s offensive and defensive capabilities. These models use various box score metrics to estimate how many points a team would score and allow in a game against an average opponent on a neutral court.

By adjusting for opponent, location, and team health, the projections offer a nuanced view of each team’s likelihood of winning a given game.

The Simulation Process

To arrive at these projections, the tournament was simulated 200,000 times. This extensive simulation process allows for a robust analysis of each team’s chances of advancing through the different rounds of the tournament.

For instance, if a team has a 10 percent chance of making the Final Four, it means that they reached the Final Four in 10 percent of the simulations.

Key Takeaways from the Projections

One of the standout findings from the projections is that a particular team has a 23 percent chance of winning the tournament. This high probability indicates that the team has consistently performed well in the simulations, showcasing their strength and potential dominance in the tournament.

Factors Influencing the Projections

Several factors influence the projections, including:

• Team Strength: The overall strength of a team, as determined by their offensive and defensive metrics.
• Opponent Strength: The quality of the teams they are projected to face in each round.
• Location: The impact of playing on a neutral court versus a home or away game.
• Team Health: The availability and performance of key players.

Impact of the Bracket

The structure of the tournament bracket plays a crucial role in the projections. The path to the championship can significantly impact a team’s chances of advancing.

For example, a team with a relatively easier path to the Final Four may have higher odds of reaching that stage compared to a team with a more challenging route.

Updating the Projections

As the tournament progresses, the projections will be updated after the completion of each game. This dynamic approach ensures that the projections remain accurate and reflective of the latest developments in the tournament.

Expert Analysis and Insights

Austin Mock, a seasoned analyst, uses his expertise in advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances across various sports, including the NFL, college football, and MLB. His insights provide a deeper understanding of the factors influencing the tournament projections.

Editorial Independence

The Bracket Central series, which includes these projections, is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. However, The Athletic maintains full editorial independence, ensuring that sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process.

This commitment to independence guarantees that the analysis and projections are unbiased and based solely on the data.

Conclusion

As the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament unfolds, fans can look forward to a thrilling and unpredictable journey.

The detailed projections are based on rigorous simulations and advanced statistical models. They provide a valuable resource for understanding each team’s chances of success.

Stay updated with the latest projections by following the Bracket Central series on The Athletic.

For more detailed insights and to explore each team’s odds, visit the full NCAA Tournament bracket and odds page on The Athletic.